ERCOT's Warning About Energy Crisis This Summer
As the blackouts in Spain and Portugal are still fresh in our minds, ERCOT in Texas just released a warning for potential power outages in July due to wind and solar issues.
We need to learn from the major blackouts of the past and understand that we will not have a stable grid without more natural gas, coal, or nuclear energy. The new energy being brought on through solar or wind is only going to cause problems, and we are facing some budget issues as the grid requires the laws of physics to be obeyed.
While there are natural gas plants in the works, we can’t be too heavily reliant on any one energy source.
The problems in Spain were due to too much non-dispatchable power from solar and wind, and a sudden drop in massive amounts of “renewable” energy sources in 3 seconds. The Texas ERCOT is a better-balanced grid configuration, but we should not add any more wind or solar until we beef up the coal, nuclear, or natural gas plants.
Key Points
ERCOT has warned of a slight risk of energy emergency alerts for July 2025, especially in the evening.
The warning is due to potential low solar and wind energy during peak demand.
Research suggests grid reliability may be challenged by increasing demand and variable renewables.
Background
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) manages power for most of Texas and has highlighted concerns for the summer of 2025, particularly in July. This warning comes as part of their efforts to ensure grid reliability during high-demand periods.
Warning Details
ERCOT's recent Monthly Outlook for Resource Adequacy (MORA) report, released on May 2, 2025, indicates a slight risk of issuing an Energy Emergency Alert (EEA) in the later evening hours. This risk arises as solar generation decreases at sunset and with the possibility of low wind, which could strain reserves during peak demand.
Implications
The evidence leans toward potential challenges in maintaining adequate power supply, driven by Texas's growing population, economic growth, and reliance on variable renewable energy sources. While no immediate crisis is expected, careful management will be crucial.
Survey Note: Detailed Analysis of ERCOT's Warning About Energy Crisis This Summer
ERCOT, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, has issued a warning regarding potential energy emergency alerts for the summer of 2025, specifically for July, as part of its Monthly Outlook for Resource Adequacy (MORA) report released on May 2, 2025. This report, which assesses the likelihood of grid reliability issues during peak demand periods, highlights a slight risk of Energy Emergency Alerts (EEAs) in the later evening hours, driven by the ramp-down of solar generation and the possibility of low wind conditions. This analysis aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the warning, its context, and implications, based on recent official statements and related data.
Context and Strategic Importance
ERCOT manages the flow of electric power to over 26 million Texas customers, representing about 90% of the state's electric load. The warning for summer 2025 aligns with broader concerns about the state's growing energy demand, fueled by population increases, economic expansion, and the rise of large load interconnections, such as data centers and industrial facilities. Texas's reliance on renewable energy, particularly solar and wind, introduces variability that can challenge grid reliability during peak demand periods, especially in the evenings when solar output diminishes.
The MORA report, introduced in 2023 to replace the Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) report, provides a monthly probability-based assessment of the hourly risks for issuing EEAs, including scenarios like severe weather or low renewable output. For July 2025, the report specifically notes the risk in later evening hours, reflecting the transition from daytime solar generation to increased reliance on other resources, which may be limited by low wind conditions.
Details of the Warning
On May 2, 2025, ERCOT released an X post stating, "ERCOT released its Monthly Outlook for Resource Adequacy (MORA) report for July 2025. There is a slight risk of ERCOT issuing an Energy Emergency Alert (EEA) in the later evening hours as solar generation ramps down. This report also accounts for the possibility of low wind" (ERCOT_ISO). This official statement, corroborated by other X posts from users like
@TexzTyme
, underscores the focus on evening hours when solar generation decreases, potentially leading to insufficient operating reserves.
The MORA report uses probability-based modeling to determine the likelihood of capacity shortages, considering factors like peak demand hours and minimum demand hours. For July 2025, it accounts for typical grid conditions and extreme scenarios, such as low wind, which could exacerbate the risk of EEAs. While the risk is described as "slight," it indicates a need for vigilant grid management to prevent potential outages.
Supporting Data and Reports
Earlier assessments, such as the 2025 Capacity, Demand, and Reserves (CDR) report, provide context for the warning. Released in May 2024, the CDR report forecasted power and reserves for June to September 2025, showing that planning reserve margins are projected to decrease compared to previous years, with the peak Net Load hour margin expected to enter negative territory beginning in summer 2026 (GridMonitor). While the 2025 summer is not projected to face a deficit, the tightening margins suggest increasing pressure on the grid, supporting the MORA's warning for July.
The current minimum target reserve margin, set at 13.75% of peak electricity demand, is a critical benchmark for assessing reliability. The MORA report for July 2025, released on May 2, 2025, aligns with this target but highlights specific risks during evening hours, particularly when solar generation is minimal and wind conditions are unfavorable.
Types of Minerals Likely Involved
While the warning does not specify mineral types, it is worth noting that the energy crisis is indirectly linked to the availability of critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel, which are essential for battery storage systems that could mitigate evening demand spikes. However, the focus here is on generation capacity rather than mineral deals, so this aspect is tangential.
Current Status and Future Outlook
As of May 7, 2025, the warning is based on the MORA report for July 2025, with no further updates from ERCOT's news releases or operations messages specifically addressing summer 2025 beyond this. The Texas Legislature and state regulators, including the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT), are working on measures to enhance grid reliability, such as demand response programs and weatherization efforts, but these are long-term initiatives (Sierra Club). The warning suggests that while the grid is expected to handle normal conditions, extreme scenarios could necessitate conservation requests or EEAs, similar to past summers.
Comparative Analysis with Other Deals
While not directly comparable, the ERCOT warning can be contextualized with past energy crises, such as Winter Storm Uri in 2021, which exposed vulnerabilities in the grid during extreme weather (Texas Tribune). Unlike Uri, the 2025 warning is focused on summer conditions and renewable variability, highlighting a different set of challenges. Recent legislative actions, like the Performance Credit Mechanism (PCM) approved in 2023, are expected to be implemented by late 2025, potentially stabilizing revenues for generators during tight grid conditions (Ascend Analytics).
Table: Summary of Key Information
Aspect
Details
Warning Date
May 2, 2025 (MORA report for July 2025)
Specific Concern
Slight risk of Energy Emergency Alerts (EEA) in later evening hours
Cause
Solar generation ramp-down and possibility of low wind
Context
Increasing demand, growing population, reliance on renewables
Current Status
Warning issued, no immediate crisis, ongoing monitoring
Future Outlook
Potential for conservation requests, legislative measures in progress
This table encapsulates the current state of knowledge, reflecting the uncertainty around specific outcomes while highlighting the factors contributing to the warning.
The Bottom Line
ERCOT's warning for summer 2025, particularly for July, indicates a slight risk of energy emergency alerts due to potential insufficient reserves in the evening hours, driven by the ramp-down of solar generation and low wind conditions. This warning is part of broader efforts to manage grid reliability amidst increasing demand and variable renewable energy sources. As of May 7, 2025, no further details have been released, but ongoing monitoring and legislative actions suggest a proactive approach to mitigating risks.
It is also best to have a plan incase of power outages from a storm, or just grid issues. Get battery packs, or solar charging just for the bare minimum lights and charging of your cell phones.
The backup power generation is nice, and unlike in Spain, I recommend battery backups that can be charged by solar. Spain did not allow for battery storage in homes if they are connected to the grid. The only people who did well were those with Stargate and those who were 100% off-grid with solar and battery backups.
Be as prepared as you can afford, before the storm or blackout happens. You may feel like you spent too much money if the lights never go out, but if they do go out and you can help your neighbors and family, the money you spent will be well worth every penny.
And that is the Crude Truth.
Key Citations
Rey, it is a great thing that the Texas grid has nuclear, coal, and natural gas for dispatchable power. How do you think we can increase natural gas power in Texas?