Is oil going to keep going up in 2025 is a question I get asked daily.
When the news covers President Trump and his political campaign slogan, “Drill Baby Drill,” it attracts a lot of attention.
Here are some additional predictions for Brent and WTI crude oil prices through the rest of 2025, based on various analyst forecasts and reports, complementing the Goldman Sachs outlook previously provided (Brent at $60/bbl and WTI at $56/bbl for 2025). These projections reflect differing views on OPEC+ production increases, global demand, geopolitical risks, and economic factors like U.S. tariffs:
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA):
Brent crude is expected to average $66/bbl in 2025, down from $68/bbl in April 2025, with prices falling to $61/bbl by Q4 2025. WTI is forecasted to follow a similar trend, averaging about $4/bbl less.
This outlook is driven by growing global oil inventories (0.4 million b/d surplus in 2025) due to increased production from non-OPEC+ countries (1.2 million b/d growth) and OPEC+ output hikes, alongside slower demand growth (1.0 million b/d). Economic uncertainties, including U.S. tariffs, further depress demand expectations.
International Energy Agency (IEA):
The IEA projects global oil supply to exceed demand by about 600,000 b/d in 2025, potentially increasing to 1.0 million b/d if OPEC+ continues unwinding cuts without addressing overproduction by members like Kazakhstan and Iraq. This surplus could push Brent prices toward $60–$70/bbl, with recent trading near three-year lows around $70/bbl.
Demand growth is forecasted at 730,000 b/d, down 300,000 b/d from prior estimates due to trade tensions and a weaker economic outlook, particularly in Asia.
Wood Mackenzie:
Brent is projected to average $73/bbl in 2025, a $7/bbl drop from 2024. WTI is expected to be lower, around $68–$70/bbl.
The forecast assumes global demand growth of 1.1 million b/d, outpaced by non-OPEC+ supply growth of 1.4 million b/d. OPEC+ plans to increase production incrementally from April 2025, but weaker GDP growth (potentially reduced by 0.5% due to trade wars) could lower demand by 400,000 b/d, further pressuring prices.
J.P. Morgan:
Brent is forecasted to average $75/bbl in 2025, declining to the low $60s by year-end. WTI is expected to average about $5/bbl less.
This prediction accounts for an oversupplied market, with low global crude inventories (4.4 billion barrels, the lowest since 阳s, potentially boosting consumption. However, Middle East tensions could sustain a geopolitical premium, keeping prices from collapsing further.
ING:
Brent is expected to average $80/bbl for 2025, with a peak in Q3 at $88/bbl before trending lower in Q4.
This assumes OPEC+ maintains voluntary cuts of 2.2 million b/d through Q3, but a full unwind could lead to a market deficit, potentially supporting higher prices if compliance improves.
Fitch:
Brent is forecasted at $70/bbl and WTI at $65/bbl for 2025.
These estimates reflect stable demand but increased non-OPEC+ supply, particularly from the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Guyana, alongside OPEC+’s gradual phase-out of 2.2 million b/d cuts by September 2025.
Long Forecast:
Brent prices are projected to range between $53.56 and $60.43, averaging around $57/bbl by December 2025. WTI is expected to range from $49.81 to $57.90, averaging about $54/bbl.
The forecast anticipates high volatility, with a peak in May ($60.43 for Brent, $57.90 for WTI) followed by a decline due to increased supply and softening demand.
CoinPriceForecast:
Oil prices (unspecified benchmark) are expected to end 2025 at $72/bbl, with a mid-year dip to $66.34.
This reflects a slight year-end rise from current levels ($67.19), driven by supply increases outpacing demand growth.
Macquarie:
Brent is forecasted at $78/bbl and WTI at $73/bbl for 2025.
A “heavy surplus” is expected due to robust non-OPEC+ supply (1.4 million b/d growth) and tepid demand, potentially limiting OPEC+’s need to unwind cuts further, keeping prices subdued.
Social Media Sentiment (X Posts):
Some posts on X suggest bearish sentiment, with predictions of WTI dropping to $50/bbl or lower due to OPEC+’s accelerated production hikes (e.g., 411,000 b/d in July 2025). These views highlight concerns about oversupply and lack of room for incremental barrels at current prices ($60s). However, these are speculative and not backed by formal analysis.
Key Observations:
Bearish Consensus: Most forecasts predict a decline in oil prices through 2025, with Brent ranging from $60–$80/bbl and WTI from $56–$75/bbl, driven by OPEC+ output increases (e.g., 411,000 b/d in May–July 2025) and non-OPEC+ supply growth (1.2–1.7 million b/d) outpacing demand (0.7–1.4 million b/d).
Demand Concerns: Weak demand growth, particularly in China (flatlining transportation fuels due to EVs and LNG trucks) and OECD countries, combined with U.S. tariff impacts, contributes to the surplus outlook.
Geopolitical Risks: Potential supply disruptions (e.g., tighter sanctions on Iran or Russia) could push Brent to the mid-$80s, but high OPEC+ spare capacity (limiting price spikes) and trade tensions cap upside potential.
Volatility: Forecasts vary due to uncertainties around OPEC+ compliance, tariff impacts, and economic growth. A pause in OPEC+ hikes (e.g., August 2025) or unexpected demand recovery (e.g., China stimulus) could alter trajectories.
These predictions are based on data available as of May 12, 2025, and may shift with new OPEC+ decisions, geopolitical events, or economic developments. For the most current insights, checking updates from sources like the EIA, IEA, or major banks is recommended.
The Bottom Line
The pricing matrices for the oil markets have been broken for a long time. It used to be supply and demand. Now that Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Iraq, and Venezuela have been producing beyond their production quotas to meet their fiscal government responsibilities, it calls into question the viability of OPEC and OPEC+ as an oil price cartel.
My gut tells me between $68 and $76 for the remainder of the year, but that is only if we see strong demand from India and China. With the potential for the tariff wars to be over soon, this could be the low side of the equation.
Irina Slav wrote an article on Oilprice.com about Saudi Arabia's budget problems. Saudi Arabia Spends Like Oil’s Still at $90
Saudi Arabia faces fiscal strain as Brent crude prices remain below the ~$90–96/bbl needed to balance its budget, with a projected 2024 deficit of up to 5% of GDP.
Despite non-oil sector growth, Saudi Arabia's economy remains tied to oil.
Riyadh may tighten spending or raise taxes, while analysts warn the deficit could exceed $67 billion if Brent averages $62 this year.Saudi Arabia faces fiscal strain as Brent crude prices remain below the ~$90–96/bbl needed to balance its budget, with a projected 2024 deficit of up to 5% of GDP.
Despite non-oil sector growth, Saudi Arabia's economy remains tied to oil.
As I have written in the past, we look at each well's economics to make money in tough markets, and even with the current outlook, we stand to be able to deliver low-cost energy to the Texas market and deliver a profit to my investors.
And That is The Crude Truth